2023-presidential-elections-and-the-politics-of-the-three-strong-men-of-the-apc-the-need-for-power-shift-to-the-south-for-united-nigeria
September 7, 2020 | News
2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE POLITICS OF THE THREE STRONG MEN OF THE APC – THE NEED FOR POWER SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FOR UNITED NIGERIA
Without a doubt, with the recent happenings and developments within the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) party at the national level, owing to the fall out of events gearing towards the Edo State election in September 2020, I strongly believe there are Three politicians whose actions in the following months to come will determine what happens in the election year 2023. These politicians are Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Malam Nasir El-Rufai and Adams Oshiomhole. Regardless of what one says or thinks, I believe no one can underrate any of these men in the current politicking in Nigeria. And it is simply because of how they are, not just considered tough politicians, but how they have been able to position themselves in Nigerian politics in vital ways.
While I am not here to speak for or against any Nigerian politician, be they in the APC or PDP as the two major political parties in the country. This is hinged on the fact that I do not belong to, or affiliated to any political party. I am simply trying to make some sense here, in all the recent happenings in the country’s political landscape as we approach 2023 general elections, which evidently, these Nigerian politicians are already gearing and planning for.
With President Muhammadu Buhari’s intervention in trying to calm the noise arising from the political turmoil in Edo State some few weeks back, some of the founders and pillars of the APC, have had to return to the trenches to re-strategize and plot fresh plans to their quest to realize their 2023 political ambitions. Apparently, notable leaders of the party considered to be posturing for 2023 include Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, and the now former APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole. Others included in this equation by relevant political stakeholders and news analyst are: Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, and Ekiti Governor, Kayode Fayemi among others.
With the dissolution of the National Working Committee (NWC), and appointment of a caretaker/convention planning committee headed by Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni, with Senator John James Akpanudoedehe as secretary, some political analyst and stakeholders are of the opinion that an opportunity has been lost with the ouster of Oshiomhole as the party’s Chairman because those depending on him will fight hard to have a hand in producing the next NWC, and that it is not going to be easy. They projected that the national chairmanship may still go to the South-South, but there is a loophole considering the fact that the APC’s stronghold in the oil-rich region has been threatened, following the defection of Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State to the PDP. But to me, there is more that can still change in this projection. It is also being said that the South-West will not accept the APC Chairmanship slot because its leaders are interested in the Presidency. In like manner, there have been insinuations that the North does not seem ready to relinquish power to the South in 2023 and may not accept the position. All of this, has apparently made the above stated political strong men to return to the drawing board regarding permutations for 2023.
As it is, all eyes are on the caretaker committee over how it will navigate the sore spots in the APC party. This is one of the reasons, all eyes are on the Buni-led committee. Already, according to reports, some members are laying land mines for the committee, saying Buni’s appointment and swearing-in violated the APC constitution. Make-up of caretaker committee essentially, the geo-political composition of the committee, to a large extent, reflects the legacy parties that fused to form the APC in 2013. But that is still not a big factor that would deter those concerned from doing what they had already planned to do.
Many believe that Tinubu has been used and dumped forever with the removal of Oshiomhole as the party’s chairman. But they fail to realize that Tinubu is an experienced politician. He knows the game. He also knows his onions. And according to a report in reiterating this fact, “Tinubu was elected to the Senate in 1993 with over one million votes, the first person to be elected to the Senate with over one million votes.” And considering the fact that we still have more than two years to 2023, I believe Tinubu, being a wise Politician, cannot be seen to be fighting the Commander-in-Chief, even though we know he would have loved Oshiomhole to serve out his tenure as APC chairman. But the fact still remains that Tinubu is rated to be the greatest political strategist of this era. Tinubu actually mentored his men like Ahmadu Bello and Obafemi Awolowo mentored their boys in their days. Tinubu also has his South-West behind him. He has made many people in Lagos politics. In my own assessment of Tinubu, he is gifted by God to have succeeded in making people from nowhere to become significant politicians.
For Oshiomhole too, he still has a lot of stake in the whole political drama in Edo State, and even at the national level. According to Wilson Ruvwoghor, in recent post with the poser: “Did Oshiomhole lose or he fooled, mocked Edo people?” Where he reiterated the fact that Oshiomhole has suffered no shame or loss worth pumping champaign for. Instead it is the entire Edo people, including those celebrating, who the former Governor has continued to fool and mock. In his words: “A man who was Governor for 2 terms (8 years), imposed a successor on Edo people and now in 2020, imposed as APC candidate above his successor, an aspirant he rubbished and rejected in 2016, even as he's been removed as national party Chairman. So, what has he lost really, a chance to remain APC Chairman for forever? Not even an Obaseki 2nd term victory would mean a loss to Oshiomhole. The only time I would agree Adams really lost is if both Obaseki & Ize-Iyamu fail to win the September Governorship. Otherwise Oshiomhole was the ultimate winner, even in sack as Party Chair.” In other words, if Obaseki wins, Oshiomhole has achieved his aim. And if Ize-Iyamu wins, Oshiomhole has also achieved his goal because the two men are his products - whether you like it or not.
As for El-Rufai he has the support of the northern elites. Some stakeholders believe that Governor El-Rufai is considered as one of those who played crucial roles in the sack of the NWC and is now backing efforts to reposition the APC ahead of the 2023 polls, where he is expected to go for the Vice Presidency or Presidency, though he recently made case for power-shift to the South in 2023. But for Amaechi, I do not think he has the needed support of the South-South for the actualization of whatever ambitions he may have for 2023. And I believe the best option is for him to become a running mate of whomever is running for the APC Presidential election in 2023. The reason being that Amaechi has no home base in APC. He has no APC Senator backing him from River state, and even no APC Governor. Amaechi could not deliver his State and almost the entire South-South for the APC. This is different when compared with El-Rufai who has his Kaduna State behind him and almost the entire North East, North West and North Central behind him since most of the Senators/Congress people and governors are APC members. But apparently, the game seems to be in favour of him for the APC Presidential race.
So, looking at the APC Presidential race, if God keeps all of them alive and active in good health, since only God has the power of life; can be said to be between Tinubu and the Northern politicians/elites. But let us be frank with ourselves. If the Northern elites and politicians still decides to try to have it all in 2023, then I greatly fear that the country might ‘shake’ more than what we have seen so far. I strongly believe that if we are to remain as “One United Country”, then the North should relinquish power to the Southern Nigeria. Those Northern politicians/elites who think they will grab the next Presidential race of both the APC and PDP parties, may end up regretting it if they fail to allow the emergence of Southern President in 2023. In my own view, for us to have a United Country, there is need to shift ground on the nation’s political interest of having it all. We need one another to build a strong and united country.
This should not just be food for thought for them, but it is actually the right and practical thing to do. I believe everyone of us, like me, is interested in having One United Nigerian with a credible leadership. But who are the credible leadership that would make it to the top? This will now be the ultimate question.
Considering the way and manner politics is played in Nigeria, the desired credible leaders cannot win even a council election talk more of bigger public office slots. This is because those considered to have the integrity and credibility, often don't have the huge resources required to use and stand a greater chance to win any election. The Nigerian election is money-based and nothing more. Without money, one cannot even win a council election. As such, Nigerians should expect the same crop of politicians in 2023.
Zik Gbemre.
July 8, 2020.
We Mobilize Others To Fight For Individual Causes As If Those Were Our Causes
Without a doubt, with the recent happenings and developments within the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) party at the national level, owing to the fall out of events gearing towards the Edo State election in September 2020, I strongly believe there are Three politicians whose actions in the following months to come will determine what happens in the election year 2023. These politicians are Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Malam Nasir El-Rufai and Adams Oshiomhole. Regardless of what one says or thinks, I believe no one can underrate any of these men in the current politicking in Nigeria. And it is simply because of how they are, not just considered tough politicians, but how they have been able to position themselves in Nigerian politics in vital ways.
While I am not here to speak for or against any Nigerian politician, be they in the APC or PDP as the two major political parties in the country. This is hinged on the fact that I do not belong to, or affiliated to any political party. I am simply trying to make some sense here, in all the recent happenings in the country’s political landscape as we approach 2023 general elections, which evidently, these Nigerian politicians are already gearing and planning for.
With President Muhammadu Buhari’s intervention in trying to calm the noise arising from the political turmoil in Edo State some few weeks back, some of the founders and pillars of the APC, have had to return to the trenches to re-strategize and plot fresh plans to their quest to realize their 2023 political ambitions. Apparently, notable leaders of the party considered to be posturing for 2023 include Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai, and the now former APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole. Others included in this equation by relevant political stakeholders and news analyst are: Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, and Ekiti Governor, Kayode Fayemi among others.
With the dissolution of the National Working Committee (NWC), and appointment of a caretaker/convention planning committee headed by Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni, with Senator John James Akpanudoedehe as secretary, some political analyst and stakeholders are of the opinion that an opportunity has been lost with the ouster of Oshiomhole as the party’s Chairman because those depending on him will fight hard to have a hand in producing the next NWC, and that it is not going to be easy. They projected that the national chairmanship may still go to the South-South, but there is a loophole considering the fact that the APC’s stronghold in the oil-rich region has been threatened, following the defection of Governor Godwin Obaseki of Edo State to the PDP. But to me, there is more that can still change in this projection. It is also being said that the South-West will not accept the APC Chairmanship slot because its leaders are interested in the Presidency. In like manner, there have been insinuations that the North does not seem ready to relinquish power to the South in 2023 and may not accept the position. All of this, has apparently made the above stated political strong men to return to the drawing board regarding permutations for 2023.
As it is, all eyes are on the caretaker committee over how it will navigate the sore spots in the APC party. This is one of the reasons, all eyes are on the Buni-led committee. Already, according to reports, some members are laying land mines for the committee, saying Buni’s appointment and swearing-in violated the APC constitution. Make-up of caretaker committee essentially, the geo-political composition of the committee, to a large extent, reflects the legacy parties that fused to form the APC in 2013. But that is still not a big factor that would deter those concerned from doing what they had already planned to do.
Many believe that Tinubu has been used and dumped forever with the removal of Oshiomhole as the party’s chairman. But they fail to realize that Tinubu is an experienced politician. He knows the game. He also knows his onions. And according to a report in reiterating this fact, “Tinubu was elected to the Senate in 1993 with over one million votes, the first person to be elected to the Senate with over one million votes.” And considering the fact that we still have more than two years to 2023, I believe Tinubu, being a wise Politician, cannot be seen to be fighting the Commander-in-Chief, even though we know he would have loved Oshiomhole to serve out his tenure as APC chairman. But the fact still remains that Tinubu is rated to be the greatest political strategist of this era. Tinubu actually mentored his men like Ahmadu Bello and Obafemi Awolowo mentored their boys in their days. Tinubu also has his South-West behind him. He has made many people in Lagos politics. In my own assessment of Tinubu, he is gifted by God to have succeeded in making people from nowhere to become significant politicians.
For Oshiomhole too, he still has a lot of stake in the whole political drama in Edo State, and even at the national level. According to Wilson Ruvwoghor, in recent post with the poser: “Did Oshiomhole lose or he fooled, mocked Edo people?” Where he reiterated the fact that Oshiomhole has suffered no shame or loss worth pumping champaign for. Instead it is the entire Edo people, including those celebrating, who the former Governor has continued to fool and mock. In his words: “A man who was Governor for 2 terms (8 years), imposed a successor on Edo people and now in 2020, imposed as APC candidate above his successor, an aspirant he rubbished and rejected in 2016, even as he's been removed as national party Chairman. So, what has he lost really, a chance to remain APC Chairman for forever? Not even an Obaseki 2nd term victory would mean a loss to Oshiomhole. The only time I would agree Adams really lost is if both Obaseki & Ize-Iyamu fail to win the September Governorship. Otherwise Oshiomhole was the ultimate winner, even in sack as Party Chair.” In other words, if Obaseki wins, Oshiomhole has achieved his aim. And if Ize-Iyamu wins, Oshiomhole has also achieved his goal because the two men are his products - whether you like it or not.
As for El-Rufai he has the support of the northern elites. Some stakeholders believe that Governor El-Rufai is considered as one of those who played crucial roles in the sack of the NWC and is now backing efforts to reposition the APC ahead of the 2023 polls, where he is expected to go for the Vice Presidency or Presidency, though he recently made case for power-shift to the South in 2023. But for Amaechi, I do not think he has the needed support of the South-South for the actualization of whatever ambitions he may have for 2023. And I believe the best option is for him to become a running mate of whomever is running for the APC Presidential election in 2023. The reason being that Amaechi has no home base in APC. He has no APC Senator backing him from River state, and even no APC Governor. Amaechi could not deliver his State and almost the entire South-South for the APC. This is different when compared with El-Rufai who has his Kaduna State behind him and almost the entire North East, North West and North Central behind him since most of the Senators/Congress people and governors are APC members. But apparently, the game seems to be in favour of him for the APC Presidential race.
So, looking at the APC Presidential race, if God keeps all of them alive and active in good health, since only God has the power of life; can be said to be between Tinubu and the Northern politicians/elites. But let us be frank with ourselves. If the Northern elites and politicians still decides to try to have it all in 2023, then I greatly fear that the country might ‘shake’ more than what we have seen so far. I strongly believe that if we are to remain as “One United Country”, then the North should relinquish power to the Southern Nigeria. Those Northern politicians/elites who think they will grab the next Presidential race of both the APC and PDP parties, may end up regretting it if they fail to allow the emergence of Southern President in 2023. In my own view, for us to have a United Country, there is need to shift ground on the nation’s political interest of having it all. We need one another to build a strong and united country.
This should not just be food for thought for them, but it is actually the right and practical thing to do. I believe everyone of us, like me, is interested in having One United Nigerian with a credible leadership. But who are the credible leadership that would make it to the top? This will now be the ultimate question.
Considering the way and manner politics is played in Nigeria, the desired credible leaders cannot win even a council election talk more of bigger public office slots. This is because those considered to have the integrity and credibility, often don't have the huge resources required to use and stand a greater chance to win any election. The Nigerian election is money-based and nothing more. Without money, one cannot even win a council election. As such, Nigerians should expect the same crop of politicians in 2023.
Zik Gbemre.
July 8, 2020.
We Mobilize Others To Fight For Individual Causes As If Those Were Our Causes